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Immediate action is the best strategy when facing uncertain climate change.
Maria Abou Chakra1,2, Silke Bumann1, Hanna Schenk1
1Department of Evolutionary Theory, Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Straße 2, 24306, Plön, Germany.
Nature Communications
|July 4, 2018
Summary
Global cooperation on climate change is hard due to delayed benefits. This study shows acting early, not waiting, is often best, even with inequality, to mitigate climate risks.
Area of Science:
- Environmental economics
- Game theory
- Climate change adaptation
Background:
- Climate change mitigation requires global cooperation, challenging due to delayed benefits.
- Existing models often simplify climate risks, lacking uncertainty and recurrence.
- Collective-risk games demonstrate cooperation under certain conditions, but real-world complexities remain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a game model incorporating uncertainty and recurrence of climate-related risks.
- To investigate optimal strategies for collective action in the face of evolving climate threats.
- To examine the influence of factors like wealth inequality and risk heterogeneity on cooperation.
Main Methods:
- Devised a multi-round collective-risk game to simulate recurrent climate change impacts.
- Analyzed player strategies, including 'wait and see' versus 'act quickly'.
- Incorporated variables for uncertainty in impact/timing and wealth/risk heterogeneity.
Main Results:
- 'Wait and see' is effective only with predictable contributions and risk elimination.
- 'Act quickly' is superior under uncertainty and recurrent risks.
- Early contributions are crucial even with inequality, provided they reduce risk.
Conclusions:
- Immediate collective action is vital for climate change mitigation, even without catastrophic scenarios.
- Uncertainty and repeated risks necessitate proactive, rather than reactive, strategies.
- Cooperation can be fostered by demonstrating the efficacy of early, collective action.
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