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Sex-specific mortality forecasting for UK countries: a coherent approach.

Ree Yongqing Chen¹, Pietro Millossovich^2,3

¹Strategy Consulting Team, NMG Financial Services Consulting Ltd, London, W1T 1JU UK.

European Actuarial Journal

|July 6, 2018

Summary

This study presents a new gender-specific mortality projection model for the UK. The 2-tier Augmented Common Factor model improves fitting and provides coherent forecasts, avoiding divergence issues in joint mortality projections.

Keywords:

Coherent forecast Cohort term Common factor Lee-Carter Mortality projection

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Area of Science:

Demography
Statistical Modeling
Public Health

Background:

Accurate mortality projection is crucial for actuarial and public health planning.
Existing models often struggle with joint projections across genders and countries, leading to divergence.

Purpose of the Study:

To introduce a novel gender-specific model for joint mortality projection in the UK.
To improve the accuracy and coherence of mortality forecasts compared to existing methods.

Main Methods:

Development of the 2-tier Augmented Common Factor (ACF) model.
Utilizing a Poisson framework for direct modeling of death counts.
Extension of the model to incorporate a cohort term for specific generational effects.

Main Results:

The 2-tier ACF model demonstrates superior in-sample fitting compared to independent Lee-Carter or Li-Lee models.
The model generates coherent mortality projections for genders within countries and countries within genders.
The extended ACF model accounts for cohort effects, such as those seen in the UK's 'golden generation'.

Conclusions:

The 2-tier ACF model offers a robust framework for joint gender- and country-specific mortality projections in the UK.
This approach mitigates projection divergence issues inherent in independent modeling.
The model's flexibility allows for the inclusion of cohort effects, enhancing forecast accuracy for specific populations.