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Updated: Feb 8, 2026
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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[Landscape pattern change and simulation in the SanJiang Plain based on the CLUE-S model.]
Zhen Li1,2, Miao Liu1, Zhen Shan Xue3
1Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.
Summary
The SanJiang Plain experienced significant marshland loss and increased fragmentation from 1980-2010 due to land-use changes. Future projections indicate continued marshland decline unless ecological restoration measures are implemented.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- The SanJiang Plain is a critical marshland ecosystem vital for regional ecological security.
- Understanding land-use change is essential for effective environmental management and conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze land-use and landscape pattern changes in the SanJiang Plain from 1980 to 2010.
- To simulate future wetland changes and assess the impacts of different development scenarios until 2030.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 3S technology (Remote Sensing, GIS, GPS) for land-use analysis.
- Employed the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model for future simulations.
- Validated the CLUE-S model using historical land-use data with a Kappa index of 0.71.
Main Results:
- Marshland area decreased by 59.1% (7135 km²) while paddy area increased by 610.1% (18010 km²) between 1980 and 2010.
- Landscape fragmentation intensified, with increased patch numbers and heterogeneity.
- Future simulations predict continued marshland loss under historical development and planning scenarios, but significant recovery under an ecological restoration scenario.
Conclusions:
- Historical land-use trends have led to severe marshland degradation and landscape fragmentation in the SanJiang Plain.
- An ecological restoration scenario offers a viable pathway to increase wetland area, enhance connectivity, and optimize landscape patterns.
- Policy interventions focusing on ecological restoration are crucial for preserving the ecological security of the SanJiang Plain.
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