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Counting is the type of measurement that is free from uncertainty, provided the number of objects being counted does not change during the process. Such measurements result in exact numbers. By counting the eggs in a carton, for instance, one can determine exactly how many eggs are there in the carton. Similarly, the numbers of defined quantities are also exact. For example, 1 foot is exactly 12 inches, 1 inch is exactly 2.54 centimeters, and 1 gram is exactly 0.001 kilograms. Quantities...
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Source localisation and its uncertainty quantification after the third DPRK nuclear test.

Pieter De Meutter1,2,3, Johan Camps4, Andy Delcloo5,6

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Inverse modeling of radioxenon detections following the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear test identified the DPRK test site as a likely source. Civilian radioxenon background complicated source identification, necessitating new assessment techniques.

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Area of Science:

  • Nuclear verification
  • Atmospheric science
  • Radiochemistry

Background:

  • The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) aims to prevent nuclear explosions.
  • The International Monitoring System (IMS) detects treaty violations.
  • The IMS detected suspicious radioxenon after the DPRK's third nuclear test.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the source location and release term of radioxenon detected by the IMS.
  • To assess the potential nuclear origin of the DPRK's third announced nuclear test.
  • To evaluate the impact of civilian radioxenon background on source attribution.

Main Methods:

  • Inverse atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of detected radioxenon.
  • Analysis of radioxenon detections in relation to the DPRK nuclear test site.
  • Investigation of potential secondary source regions and civilian radioxenon contributions.

Main Results:

  • The DPRK nuclear test site was identified as a probable source location.
  • A secondary potential source region in East Asia was also indicated by the modeling.
  • The presence of civilian radioxenon background complicated definitive source attribution.

Conclusions:

  • Atmospheric dispersion modeling is crucial for assessing the nature of man-made explosions.
  • Techniques to account for civilian radioxenon background are necessary for accurate source identification.
  • IMS data, combined with advanced modeling, supports CTBT verification efforts.