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Hacking the Human: The Prevalence Paradox in Cybersecurity.

Ben D Sawyer1, Peter A Hancock2

  • 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge.

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The prevalence effect makes rare cyberattacks harder to detect, even with automation. As attack frequency decreases, human detection accuracy declines logarithmically, posing a significant cybersecurity risk.

Keywords:
antimalwareantivirusdesignhuman-computer interactioninformation securityinternetmalwaremessagesrisksignal detectionvigilancevirus

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Area of Science:

  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Cybersecurity
  • Cognitive Science

Background:

  • The prevalence effect describes the difficulty in detecting rare signals, impacting human performance.
  • Cybersecurity environments offer opportunities to manipulate human performance through effects like prevalence.
  • Prevalence effects in email cybersecurity have not been previously studied or manipulated.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the prevalence effect as a cyberattack vector in human-automation teaming.
  • To investigate the impact of varying cyberattack frequencies on human detection accuracy.
  • To demonstrate and intentionally manipulate prevalence effects in email cybersecurity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Email Testbed (ET) simulation for clerical email tasks.
  • Participants encountered 300 email interactions with cyberattacks at 1%, 5%, or 20% rates.
  • Measured human accuracy in detecting and responding to cyberattacks under different prevalence conditions.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed the existence and impact of prevalence effects in email cybersecurity.
  • Cyberattacks at a 1% rate were significantly more successful.
  • Human accuracy showed a logarithmic decay pattern as signal probability decreased.

Conclusions:

  • A "prevalence paradox" exists in human-machine teams: reduced attack frequency increases human failure rates for remaining attacks.
  • The study highlights the potential to exploit human operators by artificially inducing prevalence effects.
  • Offers design countermeasures for information security to mitigate these risks.