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Predicting Incident Multimorbidity.

Luke T A Mounce1, John L Campbell1, William E Henley1

  • 1University of Exeter Medical School, St Luke's Campus, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom.

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|July 11, 2018
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Older adults with lower wealth, obesity, and low physical activity face higher risks of developing multiple chronic conditions. Lifestyle changes and targeting locus of control can help prevent multimorbidity.

Keywords:
determinantsepidemiologyincidencemultimorbidityolder peoplepatient characteristics

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Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Multimorbidity, the co-occurrence of multiple chronic conditions, is linked to adverse health outcomes.
  • Research identifying predictors of new multimorbidity cases is crucial for targeted prevention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle factors predicting the incidence of multimorbidity in older adults.
  • To identify key characteristics associated with developing new chronic conditions over a 10-year period.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 4,564 participants aged 50+ in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) with 10-year follow-up.
  • Employed discrete time-to-event (complementary log-log) models to analyze baseline predictors of incident multimorbidity.

Main Results:

  • Increased risk of multimorbidity associated with older age, lower wealth, obesity, low physical activity, and external locus of control.
  • Smoking history predicted increased conditions in all participants; COPD, asthma, and arrhythmia predicted subsequent multimorbidity in those with a single baseline condition.

Conclusions:

  • Findings support targeted prevention strategies for susceptible groups to reduce multimorbidity incidence.
  • Interventions should focus on behavior change, addressing lifestyle factors and health locus of control.