Estimates of lifetime lung cancer risks resulting from Rn progeny exposure

Data on five mining populations exposed to Rn progeny have been used to estimate the lifetime risk of lung cancer resulting from occupational and environmental exposure under current standards. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Our best estimate of curvilinearity is given by raising dose to the power 0.92 +/- 0.07, but the improvement in fit beyond simple linearity is not significant. On the other hand, the addition of a cell-killing term significantly improves the fit of the linear model. In any event, linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of 1.5. However, these inferences about curvilinearity are highly subject to error from the choice of reference populations, dosimetry, and latency. Under the linear-cell-killing model, our best estimate of excess relative risk is 2.28 +/- 0.35 per 100 working level month (WLM) (a doubling dose of 44 WLM). Attributable risks in these five studies range from 3.4-17.8 per 10(6) person-yr WLM-1. Risks from Rn progeny appear to interact with age and smoking in a form intermediate between additive and multiplicative. The "relative risk" model is therefore preferable for projecting lifetime risks, but life-table projections are described for a wide variety of assumptions. Our best estimate of the effect of a 50-yr occupational exposure to 4 WLM yr-1 is 130 excess lung cancer deaths per 1000 persons (0.65 per 1000 person-WLM), with a range from 60-250 per 1000. Similar calculations for lifetime exposure to an additional 0.02 working level (WL) beyond normal background produces an estimate of 20 excess lung cancers per 1000 persons.