Impact of changes in climate on air pollution in Slovenia between 2002 and 2017

Air pollutant levels depend on emissions but can also be affected by the meteorological situation. We examined air pollutant trends (PM₁₀, NO₂, O₃ and SO₂) in Slovenia, where in the past the main issue were SO₂ levels. Now, the population is still exposed to PM₁₀ and ozone levels that are above the recommended levels. Our goal was to assess if the levels of air pollutants were decreasing from 2002 to 2017 due to emission ceilings or were more influenced by changes in the meteorological situation. We modelled the relationship between levels, meteorological parameters, and seasonality and then used the models with the best estimated generalisation to adjust levels for meteorology. Models showed a significant relationship between meteorological parameters and PM₁₀, NO₂, and O₃ levels, but not SO₂. We analysed trends of raw and adjusted levels and compared them. Trends of PM₁₀ and SO₂ were decreasing at all locations for raw and adjusted data. The largest decrease was observed in SO₂ levels where the largest decrease in emissions occurred. Trends of NO₂ were also significant and negative at most locations. Levels of O₃ did not exhibit a significant trend at most locations. Results show that changes in the meteorological situation affected PM₁₀ levels the most, especially where the entire period (2002-2017) could be observed. There is strong empirical evidence that changes in meteorological parameters contributed to the decrease in PM₁₀ levels while the decrease in NO₂ and SO₂ levels can be attributed to emission ceilings.