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A dynamic emulator for physically based flow simulators under varying rainfall and parametric conditions.

Antonio M Moreno-Rodenas1, Vasilis Bellos2, Jeroen G Langeveld3

  • 1Section Sanitary Engineering, Water Management Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 CN, The Netherlands.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new method combining Unit Hydrograph (UH) and polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to efficiently emulate complex hydrodynamic models. This approach accurately predicts flow dynamics under varying rainfall and parameters, significantly reducing computation time.

Keywords:
2D shallow water equationsEmulatorFlow modellingSurrogate modelUncertainty propagationUnit hydrograph

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Computational Fluid Dynamics
  • Hydrology

Background:

  • Physically based hydrodynamic simulators are computationally intensive, limiting their application.
  • Existing surrogate modeling techniques struggle with high-dimensional parameter spaces and fixed rainfall scenarios.
  • Traditional Unit Hydrograph (UH) theory has limitations with non-linear model structures due to proportionality and superposition assumptions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an efficient emulation method for physically based hydrodynamic models.
  • To overcome the limitations of existing surrogate models in handling large parameter spaces and dynamic rainfall.
  • To enable practical applications such as real-time control and flood warning systems.

Main Methods:

  • Combines a modified Unit Hydrograph (UH) scheme with polynomial chaos expansion (PCE).
  • The emulator is designed to correct for UH theory's linearity assumptions in non-linear systems.
  • Validated using a tank-in-series routing structure and 2D Shallow Water Equations (FLOW-R2D).

Main Results:

  • The proposed emulator accurately approximates the behavior of physically based hydrodynamic models.
  • Achieves high accuracy across a wide range of rainfall inputs and parametric values.
  • Significantly reduces computational time compared to traditional simulators.

Conclusions:

  • The UH-PCE emulator effectively addresses the computational burden of hydrodynamic simulations.
  • It provides a feasible solution for real-time applications and complex scenario analysis.
  • Demonstrates high accuracy and applicability in diverse hydrological modeling contexts.