Rising trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 2000-2014

The morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer vary considerably around the world. The aim of this study was to characterize and evaluate recent changes in incidence and incidence-based mortality in the USA.

Incidence and incidence-based mortality data were based on the 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries through SEER^*Stat software. We adopted joinpoint regression to analyze the temporal trends stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size.

Based on 18 SEER data sets, the age-adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer increased from 11.85/100,000 in 2000 to 14.70/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.8, p<0.05). The incidence-based mortality also increased, from 9.96/100,000 in 2001 to 12.96/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an AAPC of 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.5, p<0.05). However, we observed a deceleration in mortality since 2005, with the annual percentage change decreasing from 4.1 (2001-2005) to 1.0 (2005-2014). These increasing trends in pancreatic cancer were observed in most subgroups (stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size).

The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the USA have increased significantly since 2000, highlighting the need for increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts.