China's livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Animal Science

Background:

• China's livestock industry underwent significant transformation over 30 years.
• This transition impacted food supply, resource use, and environmental emissions.
• Key drivers included increased demand, new technologies, and government policies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively analyze the driving forces behind China's livestock industry transition.
• To assess the national and global consequences of this transition.
• To propose an alternative transition for improved efficiency and environmental performance.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of livestock units (LUs) and production systems.
• Evaluation of changes in animal protein production, feed use, and nitrogen efficiency.
• Assessment of environmental impacts, including ammonia, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and nitrogen losses.
• Utilized Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) for future projections.

Main Results:

• Livestock units (LUs) tripled, with a shift towards industrial, landless systems and monogastric animals.
• Animal protein production increased 4.9-fold, while nitrogen use efficiency tripled.
• Feed imports rose 49-fold, atmospheric emissions doubled, and nitrogen losses to water tripled.
• GHG emissions per gram of protein produced decreased by half.

Conclusions:

• China's livestock transition has substantial global environmental and resource implications.
• Future projections indicate continued significant changes and impacts.
• An alternative transition focusing on integrated crop-livestock systems, manure management, and spatial planning is recommended.