Predicting Outcomes in Patients With AsymptomaticModerate to Severe Aortic Stenosis

Outcomes in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) have been reported primarily from tertiary centers. Whether observations from a community hospital cohort would be similar or if clinical variables would assume a more important role remains uncertain. This retrospective cohort study from one community hospital followed asymptomatic patients with moderate to severe AS for 3 years following an index echocardiogram. Patients underwent standard echocardiographic imaging and assessment of AS severity. Outcomes included aortic valve replacement, onset of Class 4 heart failure and cardiovascular death. Inclusion or exclusion criteria were met by 190 patients (body mass index of 30.8 ± 7.5 kg/m² and age 70.9 ± 13.0 years). In this obese and racially diverse cohort, adverse outcomes occurred in 72 of 190 (38%), aortic valve replacement in 33 of 72 (46%), heart failure in 30 of 72 (42%), and cardiovascular death in 9 of 72 (13%). Univariate analyses found that the echocardiographic variables assessing AS severity (Vmax, mean aortic valve gradient, and the dimensionless index) were strongly associated with outcomes. A model predicting time to adverse outcomes included age, gender, Charlson index, Vmax, aortic valve area, the electrocardiographic variables of atrial fibrillation and left ventricular strain, and echocardiographic variables unrelated to the direct measurements of stenosis severity. In conclusion, direct echocardiographic measures of AS severity, echocardiographic parameters unrelated to AS severity plus the electrocardiographic variables of atrial fibrillation and left ventricular strain were the dominant predictors of adverse outcomes in a community hospital cohort of asymptomatic patients with moderate to severe AS.