Hurricane knowledge and interpretation of forecasted error cone and wind potential graphics

Area of Science:

• Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
• Human-Computer Interaction
• Risk Communication

Background:

• Effective communication of hurricane forecasts is crucial for public safety and decision-making.
• Understanding how individuals interpret and utilize forecast graphics is essential for improving their design and impact.
• Existing hurricane forecast graphics may have varying levels of effectiveness in conveying critical information.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how participants comprehend, interpret, and make decisions based on different hurricane forecast graphics.
• To assess the influence of specific graphic elements, such as the error cone and potential for damaging winds, on user understanding and risk perception.
• To evaluate general hurricane knowledge among participants.

Main Methods:

• An online survey with four parts was administered to assess understanding and decision-making.
• Participants were presented with an error cone graphic alongside one of three experimental potential for damaging winds graphics.
• Hurricane knowledge was measured using a dedicated set of questions.

Main Results:

• Significant differences in responses were observed based on the type of "potential for damaging winds" graphic used.
• The inclusion of an error cone did not significantly alter decision-making or perceived helpfulness.
• Perceived helpfulness of forecast graphics increased with the addition of track information.

Conclusions:

• Track information significantly influences participants' perception of risk from damaging winds, whereas the error cone does not.
• Participants demonstrated good general hurricane knowledge, with some misconceptions regarding "major hurricane" definitions and window taping effectiveness.
• Understanding of the tested hurricane forecast graphics was generally good.