Predictive factors of alcohol consumption in adolescents: data from 1-year follow-up prospective study

Alcohol use/abuse is a health problem in adolescents. The last Survey on use of drugs in Secondary Schoolers carried out in Spain (ESTUDES 2014-2015), reveals that 76.8% of adolescents aged 14 to 18 years consumed alcohol in the previous year and 68.2% in the last month. The aim of this study is to determine the medium-term factors associated with alcohol consumption in a sample of Spanish adolescents. The present study was carried out as a part of the Saving and Empowering Young Lives project in Europe (SEYLE) project. The final sample was composed of 708 students, assessed at two times [basal (T0) and one year later (T1)] [males: 51.98%, basal mean age (SD)=4.43 (0.67)]. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed in order to investigate relationships between possible predictive variables found at time T0 and alcohol consumption at time T1. At basal time (T0) the prevalence of alcohol abuse was 25.56%, whereas the prevalence one year later was 49.72% (T1). Variables that significantly predict alcohol abuse within a year are: previous alcohol abuse at T0 (p<0.001), previous abuse of drugs (p=0.011), parents attending their sporting events (p=0.005), peer problems (p=0.019), and lack of prosocial behaviour (p=0.043). In the light of our results, it can be concluded that, in adolescents, externalizing disorders seem to be determining factors of medium-term alcohol consumption.