Potential Effects of Future Climate Changes on Brazilian Cool-Adapted Stoneflies (Insecta: Plecoptera).

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Zoology

Background:

• Human activities driving economic development have led to climate change, impacting biodiversity.
• Species are expected to shift their distributions towards poles or higher altitudes in response to warming.
• The Southeastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a biodiversity hotspot vulnerable to climate shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the potential impacts of future climate change on four cool-adapted Gripopterygidae species (Insecta: Plecoptera) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.
• To predict changes in species distribution ranges under different climate scenarios.
• To evaluate the potential threat to these cold-adapted species due to projected climate warming and altered precipitation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Worldclim database for present environmental variables and 17 Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for future scenarios.
• Employed principal component analysis on 19 environmental variables to model species distributions.
• Focused on the most severe greenhouse gas emission scenario to predict future range shifts.

Main Results:

• Observed poleward distribution range shifts for the studied Gripopterygidae species under future climate scenarios.
• Documented a significant decrease in the modeled protected range for these species in future projections.
• Future climate projections indicate a hotter and potentially drier environment in the region, exacerbating threats.

Conclusions:

• The four studied Gripopterygidae species are likely to experience range contractions and shifts towards southern Brazilian regions.
• Future climate change poses a severe threat to these cold-adapted, high-altitude insect species.
• Conservation strategies may need to consider these predicted range shifts and habitat changes.