Climate stability is more important than water-energy variables in shaping the elevational variation in species...

Changes in climate variables have an important impact on the prediction and protection of elevational biodiversity. Gaps exist in our understanding of the elevational distribution patterns in seed plant species richness. Our study examines the importance of climate variables in shaping the elevational variation in species richness. The importance of boundary constraint was also taken into account. Model selection based on Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best explaining climate models. Variation partitioning was used to assess the independent and joint effects of water-energy, physiological tolerance, and environmental stability variables on species richness. Our results revealed that: (a) Both raw (boundary constraint unreduced) and estimated (boundary constraint reduced) species richness showed large elevational variation, with the peak species richness seen at midelevations. The environmental variables were better at explaining the distribution pattern of species richness along the elevation, when the effect of boundary constraint was reduced; (b) the physiological tolerance and environmental stability variables explained more variation in raw and estimated species richness compared with the water-energy variables. Estimated species richness was better explained (98.6%) by the environmental variables than raw species richness (94%); (c) the water-related variables generally had the highest independent effect on raw and estimated species richness and were dominant in shaping the elevational variation in species richness. Our findings quantify the influence of boundary constraint on the distribution pattern of species along an altitudinal gradient and compare the relative contributions of environmental stability and water-energy in explaining the altitude gradient distribution pattern of plant seed species.