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Temperature dependent transmission potential model for chikungunya in India
Satya Ganesh Kakarla1, Rajasekhar Mopuri1, Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni1
1Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, Telangana, India.
The Science of the Total Environment
|August 6, 2018
Summary
Chikungunya virus transmission risk in India is increasing due to rising temperatures and favorable climate conditions. Mathematical modeling predicts peak transmission at 29°C, highlighting the need for public health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Climate Science
Background:
- Chikungunya poses a significant public health challenge in tropical and subtropical regions.
- India, particularly Delhi, experienced a major chikungunya outbreak in 2016, with the highest incidence in a decade.
- The chikungunya virus is transmitted by Aedes vectors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To utilize a mathematical model to assess the transmission risk of chikungunya in India.
- To understand the influence of climate-driven factors on chikungunya virus transmission probability.
- To predict the spatio-temporal patterns of chikungunya transmission risk across India.
Main Methods:
- Employed a climate-driven mechanistic transmission model (R0 model) for chikungunya.
- Analyzed gridded temperature data from 1948 to 2016 for India.
- Correlated epidemiological data with climatic variables and El Nino conditions.
Main Results:
- Gradual increase in mean temperatures observed in South India from 1982-2016 compared to 1948-1981.
- Increased chikungunya transmission risk noted in many Indian states during 1982-2016.
- Peak transmission predicted at 29°C, with optimal transmission occurring between 20°C and 34°C.
- 2016 showed highest transmission risk due to favorable ecoclimatic conditions, increased temperatures, and El Nino events.
- Rising temperatures reduce extrinsic incubation period and mortality rates while increasing biting rates.
Conclusions:
- Climate-based modeling indicates a heightened risk of chikungunya transmission in India.
- Optimum temperature conditions and vector availability significantly influence chikungunya transmission dynamics.
- The developed model can aid public health authorities in risk assessment and timely implementation of control measures to prevent outbreaks.
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