Predialysis Kidney Function and Its Rate of Decline Predict Mortality and Hospitalizations After Starting Dialysis

To determine whether kidney function level and its rate of decline in the immediate predialysis period among veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) predict postdialysis mortality and hospitalization.

In 19,985 veterans transitioning to ESRD during the period October 1, 2007, to March 30, 2014, we examined kidney function and its slope over the final year of the pre-ESRD(prelude) period. Two categories of low vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, dichotomized at 10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and slow vs fast slope (dichotomized at -10 mL/min/1.73 m²/y) were combined into 4 groups. Their associations with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and hospitalization rates were examined in adjusted models accounting for clinical characteristics and laboratory measurements at transition.

Patients, 66±11 years old, and 34% blacks, had a median (interquartile range) eGFR at transition and slope of 9.7 (7.1-13.3) mL/min/1.73 m² and -10.5 (-18.8 to -5.9) mL/min/1.73 m²/y, respectively. Patients with a low eGFR and slow slope had the lowest 12-month all-cause and CV mortality risks and hospitalization rate. Conversely, patients with high eGFR and fast slope had the highest risk of all-cause and CV mortality and hospitalization rate compared with patients with a low eGFR and slow slope. This relationship persisted in sensitivity analyses, including propensity scoring.

A kidney profile of a low eGFR and slow slope in the prelude period is associated with favorable early dialysis outcomes in veteran patients. Trials to examine a more conservative approach to dialysis are warranted.