Predictors of Improvement in Renal Function After Heart Transplant

Moderate chronic renal insufficiency is often found in patients evaluated for heart transplant. Recovery of cardiac output after heart transplant might lead to improvement of renal function. In this study, our aim was to identify predictors of improvement of renal function after heart transplant.

Our study included a cohort of heart transplant patients treated from 2011 to 2016 whose main outcome was improved renal function, defined as glomerular filtration rate at 6 months after heart transplant of ≥ 10% compared with baseline (before transplant). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors.

Our study included 83 patients, with 29% having improvement in renal function. Multivariate analyses identified baseline glomerular filtration rate (odds ratio of 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.98; P = .005), absence of hypertension (odds ratio of 4.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.37-17.8; P = .015), and elective heart transplant (odds ratio of 13.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-141; P = .028) as independent predictors. A scale developed with independent predictors showed good accuracy (area under the curve of 0.76). The probability for improvement in renal function was 7%, 23%, and 58% in patients with low, medium, and high scores, respectively (P < .001).

In patients with heart transplant, baseline glomerular filtration rate, absence of hypertension, and elective heart transplant were independent predictors of improvement in renal function after heart transplant.