An updated and validated PET/CT volumetric prognostic index for non-small cell lung cancer

Whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTV_WB) and TNM staging are independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to update and validate the PET/CT volumetric prognostic index (PVP index) using the new 8th edition TNM staging system to evaluate its prognostic power versus TNM staging and MTV_WB alone.

This study was a retrospective analysis of 949 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. Clinical TNM stage, MTV_WB, age and gender, tumor histology type at the initial staging PET/CT exam, as well as treatment history and long-term survival data were obtained. Patients were randomly assigned to modeling or validation group. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare PVP index, TNM stage, and MTV_WB in the validation group.

The updated PVP index included the 3 variables TNM stage, and MTV_WB and age. Univariate Cox models showed significant association of PVP index with overall survival (OS) in patients with NSCLC (with Hazard ratio HR = 2.88 in the validation group, p < 0.001). The C-statistic of the PVP index (C-statistic = 0.71 in the validation group) was significantly greater than that of 8th edition TNM staging (C-statistic = 0.68, p = 0.029), MTV_WB (C-statistic = 0.68, p = 0.001), and patient age (C-statistic = 0.53, p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses demonstrated significant association of PVP index with OS (with HR = 2.80, p < 0.001) after adjusting patient's gender and tumor histology.

The updated PVP index provides a quantitative risk assessment for NSCLC patients using 8th edition TNM staging, MTV_WB, and age. The index provides a simple and practical way for the care team to incorporate the independent prognostic value of both the TNM stage and MTV_WB. This approach can further improve the accuracy of overall survival prognosis.