Prediction of Postoperative Surgical Risk: A Needs Assessment for a Medical Student Curriculum

Medical students' abilities to predict postoperative complications and death are unknown. We hypothesize that medical students will lack confidence in determining surgical risk and will significantly overestimate surgical risk for post-operative morbidities and mortality.

Participants were invited to participate in an electronic, anonymous survey to assess their ability to predict surgical risk. The survey presented 7 complex clinical scenarios representative of a diverse general surgery practice. Participants were asked to assess the likelihood of different morbidities and mortality on a 0-100% scale, and predictions were compared to the ACS NSQIP risk calculator.

Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut; Tertiary medical center PARTICIPANTS: Third year medical students on their surgery clerkship as well as general surgery residents were invited to participate.

Most students were not confident about predicting postoperative complications (83.3%) or mortality (70.8%). Most students did not feel that the surgery clerkship adequately prepared them to assess surgical risk (69.6%). When compared to surgical residents for most presented cases (57% of cases), students and residents similarly overestimated postoperative morbidities and mortality. Estimates varied significantly, with wide 95% confidence intervals. Only 17% of NSQIP predicted estimates fell within the 95% confidence intervals.

Medical students overestimate morbidity and mortality following surgery in complex patients. Additionally, they lack confidence in their ability to predict surgical complications. A formal curriculum for risk prediction is needed for medical students.