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Self-deception mechanisms can undermine global cooperation. Mathematical models and simulations show that increased ambiguity and selfish behavior can lead to widespread distrust, even in cooperative societies.

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Area of Science:

  • Social Psychology
  • Computational Social Science
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Humans exhibit a duality of cooperation and selfishness.
  • Psychological research identifies self-deception as a key cognitive mechanism influencing social behavior.
  • Ambiguity in social preferences increases selfish actions, which in turn reinforces beliefs of others' selfishness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To mathematically model the cognitive mechanisms of self-deception in social interactions.
  • To analyze the impact of these mechanisms on the stability of cooperative societies.
  • To investigate the conditions under which cooperation collapses into widespread distrust.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a mathematical model incorporating self-deception biases.
  • Agent-based simulations of the Prisoner's Dilemma game on a random network.
  • Introduction of agents with an 'always defect' strategy to study cascade dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Self-deception mechanisms, modeled as biases toward expecting defection, were implemented in agents.
  • The magnitude of these biases determined whether defectors were isolated or initiated defection cascades.
  • Identified critical thresholds in bias magnitude leading to system-wide distrust.

Conclusions:

  • Self-deception plays a crucial role in the potential breakdown of cooperative systems.
  • Even small fractions of defectors, amplified by self-deception, can trigger widespread distrust.
  • The study highlights the fragility of cooperation and the conditions promoting societal distrust.