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How much further for the sub-2-hour marathon?
Caio Victor Sousa1, Marcelo Magalhães Sales2, Pantelis Theodoros Nikolaidis3
1Graduate Program in Physical Education, Universidade Católica de Brasília, Brasília, Brazil.
Open Access Journal of Sports Medicine
|August 15, 2018
Summary
Male athletes may break the sub-2-hour marathon barrier by 2026 or 2027. Elite male marathoners will likely possess high maximal oxygen uptake and specific training profiles, potentially from East Africa.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Exercise Physiology
- Biomechanics
Background:
- The sub-2-hour marathon is a significant milestone in endurance running.
- Elite marathon performance is influenced by numerous physiological and training factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To mathematically model the potential year for a male sub-2-hour marathon.
- To estimate the timeline for a female breaking Paula Radcliffe's marathon record.
- To identify key characteristics of elite marathon runners.
Main Methods:
- Development of mathematical models using historical performance data (Nike Breaking2 performance).
- Analysis of physiological factors (maximal oxygen uptake, pacing strategies).
- Review of training aspects (strength, endurance, speed) and runner demographics (nationality, age).
Main Results:
- A male sub-2-hour marathon is predicted between 2026-2027.
- The potential record-breaking male athlete will likely have VO2 max >85 mL∙kg-1∙min-1, run above 85% VO2 max, and focus on specific training intensities.
- The athlete is likely ~27 years old and from East Africa (Ethiopia).
- Limited evidence suggests a female sub-2-hour marathon is not imminent.
Conclusions:
- Mathematical models predict a male sub-2-hour marathon within the next decade.
- Specific physiological and training attributes are crucial for achieving this barrier.
- Further research is needed to profile female marathoners capable of breaking records.
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