A Predictive Risk Scoring System for Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND Postoperative pancreatic fistula remains a challenge after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study aimed to establish a scoring system to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after PD. MATERIAL AND METHODS The clinical records of 361 consecutive patients who underwent PD between 2009 and 2017 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were divided into a study group (225 patients) and a validation group (136 patients). CR-POPF was defined and classified based on the 2016 ISGPS definition and classification system. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed and we thus developed a scoring system based on the regression coefficient of the multivariate logistic regression model. The predictive value was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS A predictive scoring system with a maximum of 6 points for CR-POPF was established using the following 4 factors: 1 point for soft pancreatic texture (OR 2.09, 95%CI 1.10-3.98, P=0.025), 1.5 points for main pancreatic duct diameter ≤2.5 mm (OR 2.72, 95%CI 1.23-5.99, P=0.013), 0.5 points for extended lymphadenectomy (OR 1.57, 95%CI 1.13-2.18, P=0.007), 0.5 points for a 25-30 g/L postoperative day 1 serum albumin (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.02-2.00, P=0.037), and 3 points for postoperative day 1 serum albumin ≤25 g/L (OR 5.12, 95%CI 1.82-14.41, P=0.002). The ROC curve showed that this scoring system was highly predictive for CR-POPF in the validation group (AUC=0.806, 95%CI: 0.735-0.878). CONCLUSIONS This 6-point risk scoring system will be useful for perioperative risk management of CR-POPF.