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How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability
Kirsten Henderson1, Michel Loreau1
1Centre for Biodiversity, Theory, and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS, Moulis, France.
Plos Computational Biology
|August 18, 2018
Summary
A sustainable future requires balancing human population growth with environmental biocapacity. Ignoring ecosystem services in favor of intensive agriculture jeopardizes long-term human and environmental well-being.
Area of Science:
- Ecological economics
- Environmental science
- Demography
Background:
- Earth's biocapacity is currently insufficient to meet global demands.
- United Nations projects a human population of 11 billion by 2100, increasing resource strain.
- Sustainable future for humanity and environment is questioned.
Purpose of the Study:
- Model human population dynamics over the next century.
- Analyze feedbacks between natural/agricultural resources and human demography.
- Evaluate the role of ecosystem services in sustainable development.
Main Methods:
- Developed a model simulating human population growth.
- Incorporated natural and agricultural resource availability.
- Assessed the impact of ecosystem services on population dynamics.
Main Results:
- Intensive agriculture alone is insufficient for a growing population.
- Natural land area is critical, with a tipping point around 5 billion ha.
- Ignoring ecosystem services hinders restoration efforts and risks population decline.
Conclusions:
- A proactive approach must integrate ecosystem services for long-term sustainability.
- Ignoring biodiversity and ecosystem services leads to unsustainable population trajectories.
- Balancing human needs with natural systems is essential for a viable future.
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