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Updated: Feb 6, 2026

High-throughput Assay to Phenotype Salmonella enterica Typhimurium Association, Invasion, and Replication in Macrophages
Published on: August 11, 2014
Stochastic evaluation of Salmonella enterica lethality during thermal inactivation
Hiroki Abe1, Kento Koyama1, Shuso Kawamura1
1Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Hokkaido University, Kita-9, Nishi-9, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8589, Japan.
Abstract:
Stochastic models take into account the uncertainty and variability of predictions in quantitative microbial risk assessment. However, a model that considers thermal inactivation conditions can better predict whether or not bacteria in food are alive. To this end, we describe a novel probabilistic modelling procedure for accurately predicting thermal end point, in contrast to conventional kinetic models that are based on extrapolation of the D value. We used this new model to investigate changes in the survival probability of Salmonella enterica serotype Oranienburg during thermal processing. These changes were accurately described by a cumulative gamma distribution. The predicted total bacterial reduction time with a survival probability of 10-6-the commercial standard for sterility-was significantly shorter than that predicted by the conventional deterministic kinetic model. Thus, the survival probability distribution can explain the heterogeneity in total reduction time for a bacterial population. Furthermore, whereas kinetic methodologies may overestimate the time required for inactivation, our method for determining survival probability distribution can provide an accurate estimate of thermal inactivation and is therefore an important tool for quantitative microbial risk assessment of foods.
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