Prognostic Value of Frequent Exacerbations in Bronchiectasis: The Relationship With Disease Severity

Bronchiectasis is a very heterogeneous disease but some homogeneous groups with similar clinical characteristics and prognosis have been identified. Exacerbations have been shown to have a negative impact on the natural history of bronchiectasis. The objective of this study was to identify the definition and characteristics of the "frequent exacerbator patient" with the best prognostic value and its relationship with the severity of bronchiectasis.

A historical cohort of 651 patients diagnosed with bronchiectasis was included. They had all received 5 years of follow-up since their radiological diagnosis. Exacerbation was defined as a worsening of the symptoms derived from bronchiectasis that required antibiotic treatment. The main outcome was all-cause mortality at the end of follow-up.

The mean age was 48.2 (16) years (32.9% males). 39.8% had chronic infection by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Mean BSI, FACED, and E-FACED were 7 (4.12), 2.36 (1.68), and 2.89 (2.03), respectively. There were 95 deaths during follow-up. The definition of the "frequent exacerbator patient" that presented the greatest predictive power for mortality was based on at least two exacerbations/year or one hospitalization/year (23.3% of patients; AUC-ROC: 0.75 [95% CI: 0.69-0.81]). Its predictive power was independent of the patient's initial severity. The clinical characteristics of the frequent exacerbator patient according to this definition varied according to the initial severity of bronchiectasis, presence of systemic inflammation, and treatment.

The combination of two exacerbations or one hospitalization per year is the definition of frequent exacerbator patient that has the best predictive value of mortality independent of the initial severity of bronchiectasis.