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Alberta wildfire 2016: Apt contribution from anomalous planetary wave dynamics.

Vladimir Petoukhov1, Stefan Petri2, Kai Kornhuber2

  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany. petukhov@pik-potsdam.de.

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A persistent planetary wave pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, combined with a strong El Niño, created tinder-dry conditions, fueling the devastating 2016 Alberta wildfire, Canada's costliest disaster.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Climatology
  • Wildfire Science

Background:

  • The 2016 Alberta wildfire was one of Canada's most destructive wildfires.
  • Understanding the meteorological precursors to such extreme events is crucial for disaster preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and climate conditions preceding the 2016 Alberta wildfire.
  • To identify the key factors that contributed to the ignition and severity of the wildfire.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of mid- and high-troposphere large-scale circulation data from mid-April to early May 2016.
  • Examination of planetary wave structure, specifically zonal wave number 4.
  • Correlation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event data and surface conditions.

Main Results:

  • A persistent high-amplitude planetary wave structure (zonal wave number 4) dominated Northern Hemisphere circulation.
  • The strongest anticyclonic wing of this wave was positioned over western Canada.
  • This pattern, coupled with a strong El Niño event, led to anomalous high temperatures and tinder-dry surface conditions in Alberta, increasing fire hazard.

Conclusions:

  • The study identifies a specific atmospheric circulation anomaly as a critical factor in the 2016 Alberta wildfire.
  • The combination of planetary waves and El Niño created extreme fire weather conditions.
  • These findings highlight the importance of long-range weather forecasting and climate patterns in predicting and mitigating catastrophic wildfires.