Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 6, 2026
Identification and Protection of the Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve during Transoral Robotic Thyroidectomy
Published on: October 24, 2025
Ten-second central SBP variability predicts first and recurrent cardiovascular events
John D Sluyter1, Carlos A Camargo2, Robert K R Scragg1
1School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Insights
Short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) measured over 10 seconds predicts cardiovascular events. This 10-second central systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) is a significant predictor of both new and recurrent cardiovascular events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Hypertension Research
- Predictive Analytics in Medicine
Background:
- Long-term blood pressure variability (BPV) is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events.
- However, the predictive value of short-term BPV, specifically beat-to-beat variability, has not been extensively studied.
- Understanding different types of BPV can refine risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether 10-second central systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) predicts cardiovascular events.
- To compare the predictive power of short-term SBPV with established long-term BPV metrics.
- To assess the utility of 10-second SBPV in reclassifying cardiovascular event risk.
Main Methods:
- Suprasystolic brachial pressure measurements were taken over approximately 10 seconds in 4999 adults (aged 50-84 years).
- Aortic pressure waveforms were derived, and various short-term BPV metrics were calculated, including average real variability (ARV) and standard deviation (SD).
- Participants were followed for a median of 4.6 years to record first and recurrent cardiovascular events.
Main Results:
- All calculated 10-second central SBPV parameters were significantly associated with an increased risk of first cardiovascular events (hazard ratios 1.25-1.29).
- Higher SBPV levels, particularly ARV and SD, were linked to a 1.92 to 2.19 times greater risk of first events and a 1.50 to 1.76 times greater risk of recurrent events.
- 10-second SBPV demonstrated significant net reclassification improvement for 5-year cardiovascular event risk, especially in intermediate-risk individuals.
Conclusions:
- Ten-second central systolic blood pressure variability is a significant independent predictor of both first and recurrent cardiovascular events.
- These findings suggest that beat-to-beat blood pressure fluctuations offer valuable prognostic information beyond traditional long-term BPV.
- Incorporating short-term SBPV into risk assessment models may improve cardiovascular event prediction.
Objective:
Long-term (day-to-day or visit-to-visit) blood pressure variability (BPV) predicts elevated risk of cardiovascular events but represents just one BPV type. We examined whether 10-s BPV predicts cardiovascular events.
Methods:
In 4999 adults (58% men; aged 50-84 years; 670 with a prior cardiovascular event), we performed suprasystolic brachial pressure measurements over ∼10 s, yielding aortic pressure waveforms. BPV was calculated by average real variability (ARV), root mean square of successive differences, standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation and relative range. Participants were followed up for 4.6 years (median), accruing 310 first and 187 recurrent cardiovascular events, respectively.
Results:
In multivariable-adjusted analyses, all central SBPV parameters were associated with first cardiovascular events: the standardized hazard ratio for each ranged from 1.25 to 1.29. The hazard ratio between the lowest and highest sextile ranged from 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-2.80] for coefficient of variation to 2.19 (95% CI 1.38-3.46) for ARV. All central SBPV parameters also were associated with higher risk of recurrent cardiovascular events: adjusted standardized hazard ratio ranged from 1.16 to 1.21. Because of fewer recurrent events, these low-versus-high comparisons were based on tertiles; hazard ratios between the lowest and highest tertiles ranged from 1.50 (95% CI 1.02-2.23) for ARV to 1.76 (95% CI 1.20-2.60) for SD. The highest categorical net reclassification improvement for 5-year risk of first cardiovascular events was 13% (95% CI 7-18%) and substantially higher among those with intermediate (10-20%) risk: 39% (95% CI 26-52%).
Conclusion:
Ten-second central SBPV parameters predict first and recurrent cardiovascular events.
Related Concept Videos
02:27Predicting Molecular Geometry
01:25The Central Dogma
01:11Variability: Analysis
The range is a simple measure of variability, indicating the difference between the highest and...
01:09Random Variables
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
02:16Measures of Central Tendency
01:14Overview of the Cardiovascular System
Heart
The heart is the central pump of the cardiovascular system that circulates blood throughout the body. It comprises two atria receiving the blood and two ventricles pumping blood out of the heart. Their rhythmic contractions, called heartbeats, ensure that blood flow remains continuous.
Blood Vessels
Blood...