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Accuracy of NEXUS II head injury decision rule in children: a prospective PREDICT cohort study
Franz E Babl1,2,3, Ed Oakley1,2,3, Stuart R Dalziel4,5
1Emergency Department, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Insights
The National Emergency X-Radiography Utilisation Study II (NEXUS II) clinical decision rule (CDR) accurately identifies intracranial injury in children with head trauma. However, its widespread application may increase CT scans due to clinician accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Emergency Medicine
- Pediatric Traumatology
- Radiology
Background:
- The National Emergency X-Radiography Utilisation Study II (NEXUS II) clinical decision rule (CDR) aids in optimizing computed tomography (CT) use for pediatric head trauma.
- External validation of the NEXUS II CDR in a large, diverse cohort is crucial for its clinical utility.
Purpose of the Study:
- To externally validate the accuracy of the NEXUS II CDR in detecting clinically important intracranial injury (ICI) in children presenting with head trauma.
- To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the NEXUS II CDR with clinician-based assessment without the rule.
Main Methods:
- A prospective observational study involving over 20,000 pediatric patients (<18 years) with head trauma across 10 Australian/New Zealand emergency departments.
- The study assessed the sensitivity and specificity of the NEXUS II CDR for identifying ICI, with a secondary analysis of clinician accuracy without the rule.
Main Results:
- The NEXUS II CDR demonstrated high sensitivity (99.0%) for detecting ICI in the overall cohort.
- Specificity for the NEXUS II CDR was 47.2%, with 49.4% of unimaged children meeting NEXUS II risk criteria.
- Clinician accuracy without the rule showed 100.0% sensitivity and 92.0% specificity for ICI.
Conclusions:
- The NEXUS II CDR exhibits high sensitivity for identifying ICI in pediatric head trauma, consistent with its derivation study.
- The high proportion of unimaged patients positive for NEXUS II criteria may lead to increased CT utilization, despite high clinician accuracy.
Objective:
The National Emergency X-Radiography Utilisation Study II (NEXUS II) clinical decision rule (CDR) can be used to optimise the use of CT in children with head trauma. We set out to externally validate this CDR in a large cohort.
Methods:
We performed a prospective observational study of patients aged <18 years presenting with head trauma of any severity to 10 Australian/New Zealand EDs. In a planned secondary analysis, we assessed the accuracy of the NEXUS II CDR (with 95% CI) to detect clinically important intracranial injury (ICI). We also assessed clinician accuracy without the rule.
Results:
Of 20 137 total patients, we excluded 28 with suspected penetrating injury. Median age was 4.2 years. CTs were obtained in ED for 1962 (9.8%), of whom 377 (19.2%) had ICI as defined by NEXUS II. 74 (19.6% of ICI) patients underwent neurosurgery.Sensitivity for ICI based on the NEXUS II CDR was 379/383 (99.0 (95% CI 97.3% to 99.7%)) and specificity was 9320/19 726 (47.2% (95% CI 46.5% to 47.9%)) for the total cohort. Sensitivity in the CT-only cohort was similar. Of the 18 022 children without CT in ED, 49.4% had at least one NEXUS II risk criterion. Sensitivity for ICI by the clinicians without the rule was 377/377 (100.0% (95% CI 99.0% to 100.0%)) and specificity was 18 147/19 732 (92.0% (95% CI 91.6% to 92.3%)).
Conclusions:
NEXUS II had high sensitivity, similar to the derivation study. However, approximately half of unimaged patients were positive for NEXUS II risk criteria; this may result in an increased CT rate in a setting with high clinician accuracy.
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