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Feedback Between Behavioral Adaptations and Disease Dynamics.

Jiangzhuo Chen1, Achla Marathe2,3, Madhav Marathe2,4

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Sharing antiviral drugs between public and private sectors during an influenza pandemic can control disease spread. However, private sector access is unequal, leading to drug wastage and higher prevalence in larger households.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Health Economics
  • Network Science

Background:

  • Pandemic preparedness requires understanding complex interactions between individual behavior, disease dynamics, and intervention strategies.
  • Limited antiviral stockpiles necessitate efficient allocation between public and private sectors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the feedback mechanisms between individual behavior, disease prevalence, interventions, and social networks during an influenza pandemic.
  • To analyze the impact of sharing limited antiviral stockpiles between private and public sectors on disease containment and drug accessibility.
  • To assess the role of economic factors, social networks, and demographic variables in pandemic response.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of an economic model with prevalence-elastic demand for interventions.
  • Utilization of a detailed social network and a disease propagation model.
  • Simulation of urban and rural regions to ensure result robustness.

Main Results:

  • An optimal allocation strategy between private and public sectors can effectively contain influenza.
  • Private sector access to antivirals disproportionately benefits higher income groups, increasing inequality.
  • Increased allocation to the private sector leads to drug wastage, with unaffordable access for those in need.
  • Disease prevalence correlates with household size and contact time, but not social network degree.
  • Antiviral wastage decreases with higher social network degree and contact time.

Conclusions:

  • Strategic public-private partnerships are crucial for pandemic response, but equitable access must be prioritized.
  • Targeted distribution and pricing strategies are needed to prevent unequal access and wastage of essential medicines.
  • Intervention effectiveness is influenced by social structures and individual behaviors, highlighting the need for tailored approaches.