Comparison of the effectiveness of four Budyko-based methods in attributing long-term changes in actual...

The responses of hydrological processes to climate change and anthropogenic influence have received significant attention over the past few decades. Several Budyko-based methods have been widely used to attribute hydrological variations and identify the extent of variation due to climate change and human activities. However, the accuracy of various methods has rarely been compared. This study employed four Budyko-based methods, namely the total differential method, complementary method, extrapolation method, and decomposition method, to attribute the changes in actual evapotranspiration in 13 basins in China's Loess Plateau. We compared their performances and analysed factors that contribute to the differences in attribution results yielded by the various methods. The results showed that the total differential, complementary, and decomposition methods presented similar estimates of the contributions of climate change and human activities. However, the extrapolation method showed a large deviation in the contribution of human activities. The error of the extrapolation method was the largest, followed by that of the two-stage total differential method. The complementary method and decomposition method exhibited negligible errors.