A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California

Area of Science:

• Geophysics
• Computational Seismology
• Earthquake Engineering

Background:

• Seismic hazard models are crucial for public safety, informing building codes and mitigation strategies.
• Current seismic hazard models rely on uncertain assumptions and are hard to validate due to long earthquake recurrence intervals.
• Physics-based earthquake simulators present a promising alternative but face significant scientific uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare a physics-based earthquake simulator with the established seismic hazard model for California.
• To assess the simulator's ability to replicate long-term seismic hazard estimates.
• To evaluate the potential of physics-based models as a less assumption-dependent alternative for hazard assessment.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a physics-based earthquake simulator.
• Employed uniform parameters within the simulator.
• Compared the simulator's output with the latest seismic hazard model for California.

Main Results:

• The physics-based simulator demonstrated strong agreement with the California seismic hazard model for long-term shaking.
• The simulator successfully replicated statistically derived hazard estimates.
• This suggests a robust cross-validation of standard seismic hazard assessment methods.

Conclusions:

• Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a viable alternative for seismic hazard estimation.
• This approach requires fewer input parameters and assumptions compared to traditional methods.
• The findings support the use of physics-based models for enhancing seismic hazard assessments and informing safety regulations.