The evolvability of animal-pollinated flowers: towards predicting adaptation to novel pollinator communities

In the event of a community turnover, population decline, or complete disappearance of pollinators, animal-pollinated plants may respond by adapting to novel pollinators or by changing their mating system. The ability of populations to adapt is determined by their ability to respond to novel selection pressures, i.e. their evolvability. In the short term, evolvability is determined by standing genetic variation in the trait under selection. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of plant reproductive systems, I compiled genetic-variance estimates for a large selection of floral traits mediating shifts in pollination and mating systems. Then, I computed evolvabilities and compared these among trait groups and against the evolvabilities of vegetative traits. Evolvabilities of most floral traits were substantial yet tended to be lower than the median for vegetative traits. Among floral traits, herkogamy (anther-stigma distance), floral-display traits and perhaps floral-volatile concentrations had greater-than-average evolvabilities, while the evolvabilities of pollinator-fit traits were below average. These results suggest that most floral traits have the potential to evolve rapidly in response to novel selection pressures, providing resilience of plant reproductive systems in the event of changing pollinator communities.