Climate complexity in the migratory cycle of Ammodramus bairdii

One way to understand the ecology of bird migration is to analyze how birds use their ecological niche during their annual cycle. Ammodramus bairdii is a grassland specialist sparrow that breeds in southern Canada and the northern U.S.A. and winters in the Chihuahuan Desert. A continuous and alarming decrease of its populations has been observed over the last 50 years, and studying its seasonal distribution and associated climatic niches could help improve strategies for its conservation. We analyzed the temporal use of its Grinnellian niche (GN) -set of environmental conditions under which a species can establish and persist; in this case the climatic attributes-. We modeled the GN for the reproductive and winter seasons and projected them onto each other (inter-prediction), and also onto transient migratory periods. To measure niche breadth and their overlap, minimum convex polygons (MCP) were calculated for the climatic space. The niches of each of the two seasons were tested for similarity using the PCA axes of climatic variables. The geographic areas with optimal, suboptimal and marginal conditions were identified, based on the distance to the centroid of the GN. The models for each season revealed no geographic inter-prediction among them, with the exception of winter to migratory seasons. The niche breadth of the winter was greater than that of the reproductive season, with an overlap of 22.47% and 45.18%, respectively. The similarity analyses showed a value of zero between seasons. The climate conditions for the records during the migratory months corresponded with suboptimal and marginal conditions of the sparrow's winter niche. These results suggest that A. bairdii uses different climate conditions within ecological niches of each season during its migratory cycle.