[Future prevalence evolution of the diabetes mellitus. Analysis in the Spanish case]

Frequently, the projections on the prevalence of diabetes point to a scenario of continued, not encouraging, increase; however, although it could be very early to say this is a consolidated trend, the latest data gathered could show a more optimistic future. The aim in this work was to exhaustively detail the possible scenarios on the future evolution of diabetes mellitus prevalence. Each one of them was statistically tested to assess the available data and to contrast three theoretical hypotheses about the probability of the disease increase or evolution.

Three possible scenarios have been proposed which have been contrasted with linear, logistic and lognormal regression models. Data was gathered from different national health surveys from 1999 to 2014.

For the linear model the prevalence would reach 8.5% in the year 2025 and it would continue to grow, with the logistic model the increase slows down and stabilizes at 8.6%, and for the lognormal model the prevalence would begin to decrease once, in 2025, 8.6% has been reached.

A growing awareness about the need for a balanced diet or about the benefits of continued physical exercise, the different public health measures that governments begin to implement, along with biotechnological development, especially on DM 1, could be starting to show an impact on the prevalence incipient decrease of this illness.