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Predicting Performance of First-Year Residents: Correlations Between Structured Interview, Licensure Exam, and
Brittany Marcus-Blank1, Jeffrey A Dahlke, Jonathan P Braman
1B. Marcus-Blank was a graduate student, Industrial/Organizational Psychology Program, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota, at the time of the study. The author is now senior analyst, Talent Assessment and Coaching, General Mills, Minneapolis, Minnesota. J.A. Dahlke is a graduate student, Industrial/Organizational Psychology Program, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota. J.P. Braman is associate professor, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota. E. Borman-Shoap is assistant professor and vice chair for education, Department of Pediatrics, and program director, Pediatrics Residency Program, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota. E. Tiryaki is associate professor, Department of Neurology, University of Minnesota Medical School, and associate chief of staff for education, Minneapolis Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Care System, Minneapolis, Minnesota. J. Chipman is professor and vice chair for education, Department of Surgery, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota. J.S. Andrews is vice president, GME Innovations, American Medical Association, Chicago, Illinois. P.R. Sackett is professor of psychology, Industrial/Organizational Psychology Program, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota. M.J. Cullen is director of evaluation for graduate medical education, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Purpose:
To determine whether scores on structured interview (SI) questions designed to measure noncognitive competencies in physicians (1) predict subsequent first-year resident performance on Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) milestones and (2) add incremental validity over United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge scores in predicting performance.
Method:
The authors developed 18 behavioral description questions to measure key noncognitive competencies (e.g., teamwork). In 2013-2015, 14 programs (13 residency, 1 fellowship) from 6 institutions used subsets of these questions in their selection processes. The authors conducted analyses to determine the validity of SI and USMLE scores in predicting first-year resident milestone performance in the ACGME's core competency domains and overall.
Results:
SI scores predicted midyear and year-end overall performance (r = 0.18 and 0.19, respectively, P < .05) and year-end performance on patient care, interpersonal and communication skills, and professionalism competencies (r = 0.23, r = 0.22, and r = 0.20, respectively, P < .05). SI scores contributed incremental validity over USMLE scores in predicting year-end performance on patient care (ΔR = 0.05), interpersonal and communication skills (ΔR = 0.09), and professionalism (ΔR = 0.09; all P < .05). USMLE scores contributed incremental validity over SI scores in predicting year-end performance overall and on patient care and medical knowledge.
Conclusions:
SI scores predict first-year resident year-end performance in the interpersonal and communication skills, patient care, and professionalism competency domains. Future research should investigate whether SIs predict a range of clinically relevant outcomes.
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