Negative Predictive Value of NI-RADS Category 2 in the First Posttreatment FDG-PET/CT in Head and Neck Squamous Cell...

FDG PET/CT has a high negative predictive value in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma who responds completely to non-operative therapy. However, the treatment failure rate in patients with a partial but incomplete response is unclear. Our aim was to investigate the negative predictive value of the first posttreatment FDG-PET/CT in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma with incomplete response interpreted as Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System (NI-RADS) category 2.

We retrospectively identified patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemoradiation or radiation therapy with curative intent in our institution between 2008 and 2016. We included patients whose first posttreatment FDG-PET/CT was interpreted as showing marked improvement of disease but who had a mild residual mass or FDG avidity in either the primary tumor bed or lymph nodes (NI-RADS 2). The negative predictive value of FDG-PET/CT was calculated, including the 95% CI, using the Newcombe method. Two-year disease-free survival was the reference standard.

Seventeen of 110 patients (15%) experienced locoregional treatment failure within 2 years of completing treatment, yielding a negative predictive value of 85% (95% Cl, 77%-90%). The most common location of tumor recurrence was the cervical lymph nodes (59%). The median time interval between completion of therapy and treatment failure was 10 months (range, 5-24 months).

In patients with an incomplete response after treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, the negative predictive value of the first posttreatment FDG-PET/CT was 85%, which is lower than the 91% negative predictive value of FDG-PET/CT in patients with an initial complete response. Patients with an incomplete response (NI-RADS 2) should undergo more frequent clinical and imaging surveillance than patients with an initial complete response (NI-RADS 1).