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The codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) is a major apple pest. This study used the Maxent model to predict its global distribution, identifying Europe, Asia, and North America as key suitable areas.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Invasive Species Management
  • Agricultural Entomology
  • Computational Ecology

Background:

  • Invasive species, such as the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), pose significant economic and ecological threats globally.
  • The codling moth is recognized as one of the world's worst invasive alien species and a paramount destructive pest of apples, causing substantial economic losses.
  • Understanding the potential distribution of the codling moth is crucial for mitigating the risks associated with its establishment and spread.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the potential global distribution of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) using ecological and environmental data.
  • To identify key environmental and accessibility factors influencing the global distribution of this invasive apple pest.
  • To inform risk assessment and management strategies for the codling moth.

Main Methods:

  • Employed the Maxent (Maximum Entropy Model), a machine learning algorithm, for species distribution modeling.
  • Integrated global accessibility data, apple yield data, elevation data, and 19 bioclimatic variables.
  • Considered ecological characteristics and dispersal pathways from growth and survival to dispersion of the codling moth.

Main Results:

  • Identified suitable areas for codling moth distribution primarily in Europe, Asia, and North America.
  • Model predictions closely aligned with currently known regions of codling moth occurrence.
  • Determined that global accessibility, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, annual mean temperature, and apple yield were the most significant environmental predictors.

Conclusions:

  • The Maxent model effectively predicts the potential global distribution of the codling moth based on key environmental variables and accessibility.
  • The identified suitable regions highlight areas at high risk for codling moth establishment and impact.
  • Findings provide critical insights for targeted pest management and biosecurity measures against this invasive species.