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Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

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Global firearm deaths reached 251,000 in 2016, with homicides being the majority. While overall firearm injury death rates decreased, significant variations persist across countries and demographics, highlighting the need for targeted prevention policies.

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Area of Science:

  • Global Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Understanding global firearm mortality is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies.
  • Previous estimates of firearm injury deaths have varied, necessitating updated global data.
  • Firearm access and ownership are recognized as significant factors influencing mortality rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the global burden of firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 across 195 countries and territories.
  • To analyze trends in firearm mortality, including homicide, suicide, and unintentional deaths.
  • To investigate the relationship between firearm availability and firearm-related mortality rates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized deidentified aggregated vital registration data from 13,812 location-years.
  • Generated estimates of death levels and rates stratified by age, sex, year, and location.
  • Employed a revised proxy measure combining firearm suicide proportion and per capita gun ownership to assess firearm access.

Main Results:

  • An estimated 251,000 (95% UI, 195,000-276,000) firearm injury deaths occurred globally in 2016, a rise from 209,000 in 1990.
  • Homicides constituted the majority (64.0%) of firearm deaths in 2016, followed by suicides (27.0%) and unintentional deaths (9.0%).
  • While global firearm suicide rates decreased by 1.6% annually, 124 countries saw stable or increasing rates; firearm homicide rates showed no significant decrease globally. Higher firearm availability was associated with increased firearm suicide and homicide rates (R²=0.21 and R²=0.35, respectively).

Conclusions:

  • Global firearm injury deaths increased between 1990 and 2016, with a disproportionate burden in six countries.
  • Despite an overall decrease in age-standardized firearm death rates, significant variations exist globally and across demographic groups.
  • Findings underscore the complex relationship between firearm availability and mortality, emphasizing the need for tailored, evidence-based prevention policies.