The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation
Long P Hoang1, Michelle T H van Vliet1, Matti Kummu2
1Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands.
The Science of the Total Environment
|September 4, 2018
Summary
Future Mekong River flow will be significantly altered by climate change, hydropower, and irrigation. Hydropower dramatically shifts seasonal flows, increasing dry periods and decreasing wet periods, impacting downstream regions.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
- Environmental Management
Background:
- The Mekong River basin is vital for Southeast Asia's economy, flood control, and ecosystems.
- River flow is vulnerable to climate change and socioeconomic development, with limited understanding of combined impacts.
- Future hydrological changes require assessment under multiple stressors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project hydrological changes in the Mekong River basin by the 2050s.
- To analyze the impacts of climate change, hydropower development, and irrigated land expansion on river flow.
- To understand the combined effects of these drivers on annual and seasonal flow regimes.
Main Methods:
- Modeling projected hydrological changes under climate change scenarios.
- Assessing the influence of large-scale hydropower developments.
- Quantifying the impact of irrigated land expansions on river flow.
Main Results:
- Future river flow is highly susceptible to climate change, hydropower, and irrigation.
- Hydropower significantly alters seasonal flows, increasing dry season flow (+70%) and decreasing wet season flow (-15%).
- Cumulative impacts lead to reduced early wet season flows (-25% in July), threatening agriculture and causing saltwater intrusion.
Conclusions:
- Combined impacts of climate change, hydropower, and irrigation will substantially alter Mekong River flow regimes.
- Significant seasonal flow shifts necessitate careful planning for future development and adaptation strategies.
- Downstream challenges, including agricultural impacts and saltwater intrusion, require proactive management.
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