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Nonlinear continuous fluctuation intensity financial dynamics and complexity behavior.

Hanqing Wang1, Jun Wang1, Guochao Wang1

  • 1Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, People's Republic of China.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces continuous fluctuation intensity (CFI), a new metric for stock market volatility duration. CFI offers a novel approach to analyzing market fluctuations and investment risk without pre-set thresholds.

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Area of Science:

  • Quantitative Finance
  • Financial Econometrics
  • Market Dynamics

Background:

  • Understanding return volatility dynamics is crucial for investment risk assessment and portfolio management.
  • Existing methods for analyzing volatility often rely on pre-defined thresholds, limiting their scope.
  • A novel approach is needed to capture the continuous nature of market fluctuations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and define a new concept, continuous fluctuation intensity (CFI), for characterizing stock market fluctuation duration.
  • To investigate the nonlinear properties and complexity of CFI using empirical data from China and USA stock markets.
  • To compare the characteristics of CFI series with traditional return volatility series.

Main Methods:

  • Definition of Continuous Fluctuation Intensity (CFI) based on sequential return volatilities or normalized absolute returns.
  • Application of probability distribution, autocorrelation analysis, and scatterplot analysis to empirical data.
  • Utilisation of fractional sample entropy and fuzzy entropy to assess the complexity of CFI series.

Main Results:

  • Empirical analysis of CFI series from China and USA stock markets reveals meaningful patterns and nonlinear properties.
  • The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of using CFI as a novel indicator in return volatility research.
  • Similarities and differences between CFI series and traditional return volatility series were identified.

Conclusions:

  • Continuous Fluctuation Intensity (CFI) provides a valuable new perspective on stock market dynamics and risk.
  • The proposed method offers a threshold-independent approach to analyzing volatility duration.
  • Further research into CFI can enhance our understanding of market behavior and inform investment strategies.