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Independent Relationship of Changes in Death Rates with Changes in US Presidential Voting
Lee Goldman1,2, Maribel P Lim3, Qixuan Chen4
1Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. lgoldman@columbia.edu.
Journal of General Internal Medicine
|September 7, 2018
Summary
Slower reductions in age-adjusted death rates, including deaths of despair, were linked to increased Republican votes in the 2016 election. These health trends may have influenced the presidential election outcome.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Political Science
- Sociology
Background:
- The 2016 presidential election outcome is often attributed to socioeconomic and ethnic/racial factors.
- Health issues, specifically "deaths of despair" (drug overdose, alcohol abuse, suicide), may have also played a significant role.
- Understanding the interplay between health trends and political outcomes is crucial for public health policy and social science research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if changes in age-adjusted death rates were independently associated with shifts in presidential election voting patterns between 2008 and 2016.
- To explore the correlation between mortality trends and electoral changes across US counties.
- To investigate the potential impact of health-related factors on election results.
Main Methods:
- Utilized publicly available data from 3112 US counties for cross-sectional analysis.
- Correlated changes in county-level presidential voting (2016 vs. 2008) with changes in age-adjusted death rates (2000-2015).
- Controlled for demographic and socioeconomic variables including population, rural-urban status, age, race/ethnicity, income, education, unemployment, and health insurance rates.
Main Results:
- Counties with increased Republican vote percentage in 2016 showed a 15% higher age-adjusted death rate in 2015 compared to counties with increased Democratic vote percentage.
- Death rates from drugs, alcohol, and suicide increased 2.5 times more in counties with Republican gains than in those with Democratic gains since 2000.
- Republican net presidential gain was independently correlated with slower reductions in county-level age-adjusted death rates.
Conclusions:
- A lesser reduction in age-adjusted death rates independently correlated with an increased Republican percentage vote in the 2016 election.
- Rising death rates may serve as indicators of underlying dissatisfaction and fear that influenced the 2016 presidential election.
- While correlation does not imply causation, these findings suggest that health trends are significant factors in understanding electoral dynamics.
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