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Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming
Chen Chen1, Laure Guerit1,2, Brady Z Foreman3
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des Maraîchers 13, 1205, Geneva, Switzerland.
Scientific Reports
|September 8, 2018
Summary
During the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), extreme floods increased water discharge by up to 14 times. This geological event provides crucial insights into future climate change impacts on precipitation extremes and flooding risks.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Hydrology
- Climate Science
Background:
- Accurately predicting precipitation extremes under climate change is a critical challenge.
- The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a period of rapid global warming, serves as a geological analog for studying hydrological responses.
- Quantifying past hydrologic extremes during such warming events has been historically difficult.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify changes in water discharge and hydrologic extremes during the early phase of the PETM.
- To provide independent constraints on the hydrological response to significant global warming.
- To assess the potential magnitude of future increases in extreme rainfall and flooding.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and paleochannel gradients in northern Spain.
- Examination of the transition from overbank paleosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences.
- Reconstruction of water discharge magnitudes based on geomorphological evidence.
Main Results:
- Water discharge increased by at least 1.35 times, potentially up to 14 times, during the early PETM.
- Evidence of extreme floods and increased channel mobility was observed.
- Significant export of terrigenous material to the ocean was inferred.
Conclusions:
- Extreme floods and associated risks of flooding likely increase with global warming.
- The magnitude of these increases may be higher than currently predicted by climate models.
- The PETM offers valuable insights into the severe hydrological consequences of rapid warming events.
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