Selecting appropriate variables for detecting grassland to cropland changes using high resolution satellite data

Grassland is one of the most represented, while at the same time, ecologically endangered, land cover categories in the European Union. In view of the global climate change, detecting its change is growing in importance from both an environmental and a socio-economic point of view. A well-recognised tool for Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change Detection (CD), including grassland changes, is Remote Sensing (RS). An important aspect affecting the accuracy of change detection is finding the optimal indicators of LULC changes (i.e., variables). Inappropriately selected variables can produce inaccurate results burdened with a number of uncertainties. The aim of our study is to find the most suitable variables for the detection of grassland to cropland change, based on a pair of high resolution images acquired by the Landsat 8 satellite and from the vector database Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS). In total, 59 variables were used to create models using Generalised Linear Models (GLM), the quality of which was verified through multi-temporal object-based change detection. Satisfactory accuracy for the detection of grassland to cropland change was achieved using all of the statistically identified models. However, a three-variable model can be recommended for practical use, namely by combining the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Wetness and Fifth components of Tasselled Cap. Increasing number of variables did not significantly improve the accuracy of detection, but rather complicated the interpretation of the results and was less accurate than detection based on the original Landsat 8 images. The results obtained using these three variables are applicable in landscape management, agriculture, subsidy policy, or in updating existing LULC databases. Further research implementing these variables in combination with spatial data obtained by other RS techniques is needed.