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Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population.

William W Murdoch1, Fang-I Chu2, Allan Stewart-Oaten1

  • 1Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America.

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|September 13, 2018
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Population growth in Mid-African Countries (MACs) is driven by high Total Fertility Rates (TFR). Improving infant survival rates (ISR) in MACs could significantly lower global population projections by 2100.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Global Health
  • Socioeconomics

Background:

  • Projected global population increase by 2100 is largely concentrated in 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs).
  • Slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) are the primary driver of this demographic trend.
  • Historically, TFR declines correlate with increased wellbeing, often linked to economic development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between wellbeing, proxied by Infant Survival Rate (ISR), and TFR in MACs.
  • To project the impact of improved ISR on TFR and future global population estimates.
  • To assess the feasibility of ISR improvements and TFR declines in MACs.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of TFR trends in MACs versus 61 Other Developing Countries (ODCs).
  • Utilized historical data correlating ISR increases with TFR declines.
  • Modeled future population scenarios based on projected ISR improvements in MACs.

Main Results:

  • MACs exhibit a similar TFR decline rate in relation to ISR increases as observed in ODCs.
  • If MAC ISR increases at historical ODC rates, TFR would decline correspondingly.
  • This scenario projects a 1.1 billion lower global population by 2100 than currently forecast.

Conclusions:

  • Improving wellbeing, indicated by ISR, is a feasible pathway to reduce TFR in MACs.
  • Targeted interventions to enhance ISR in MAC populations are crucial for influencing global population dynamics.
  • Significant reductions in projected global population are achievable through focused development efforts in MACs.