Impact of licensed federal firearm suppliers on firearm-related mortality

Legal firearm sales occur largely through suppliers that have Federal Firearm Licensees (FFLs). Since FFL density might reflect ease-of-access to firearm purchases, we hypothesized that the number of FFL dealers would be associated with firearm-related deaths. We further hypothesized that licensee-type subsets would be associated with differential risks for gun-related deaths.

We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System (2008-2014) and national data on Federal Firearms Licensees for 2014. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were performed to determine the relationship between different licensee types and firearm-related deaths. We controlled for population, number of statewide registered firearms, and the density of other types of FFLs.

We identified a total of 65,297 FFLs. There was a moderate correlation (R = 0.53, ρ = 0.48) between total FFL density and firearm-related death rates. Further analysis by type of firearm-related death showed a strong correlation (R = 0.81, ρ = 0.76) between total FFL density and firearm-related suicide rates. No correlation was found between total FFL density and firearm-related homicide rate. Among individual FFL types, FFL02 (firearm dealing pawnshop) density was the only FFL-type found to be correlated with firearm-related death rates. We found a strong correlation between FFL02 density and overall firearm-related death rate (R = 0.69, ρ = 0.78) and firearm-related suicide rate (R = 0.72, ρ = 0.78). Linear regression analysis showed that even while controlling for number of registered firearms and population, the number of firearm-dealing pawnshops remained significantly associated with overall firearm-related deaths and firearm-related suicides.

Access to legally distributed firearms is associated with firearm-related death rates, particularly firearm-related suicides. Specifically, firearm-dealing pawnshops were associated with suicide-related deaths. These findings suggest that deeper exploration of legal firearm access and firearm-related injuries would benefit discussion of preventative measures.

Therapeutic, Level V.