Genome-based transmission modelling separates imported tuberculosis from recent transmission within an immigrant
Diepreye Ayabina1, Janne O Ronning2, Kristian Alfsnes2
11Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
Microbial Genomics
|September 15, 2018
Summary
Tuberculosis (TB) transmission in Norway is complex, with most cases among immigrants. Whole-genome sequencing revealed about a quarter of TB infections occurred within Norway, not solely imported.
Area of Science:
- Genomics
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Control
Background:
- Low tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries often see TB cases concentrated in immigrant populations from high-burden regions.
- Norway experiences over 80% of TB cases among immigrants, posing challenges for distinguishing imported vs. local transmission due to factors like variable latency and social networks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Norway, specifically within an immigrant community.
- To differentiate between imported TB cases and within-country transmission using genomic data.
Main Methods:
- Whole-genome sequencing of clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates.
- Phylogenetic analysis to model transmission and estimate patient infection times.
- Comparison of estimated infection times with patient arrival dates in Norway.
Main Results:
- A large genotype cluster linked to the Horn of Africa was identified in Norway over two decades.
- Independent import accounted for the majority of TB cases.
- Approximately 25% of TB cases were estimated to have been acquired within Norway.
Conclusions:
- While import is the primary driver, a significant proportion of TB transmission occurs locally within immigrant communities in low-incidence settings.
- The genomic and temporal analysis approach is valuable for understanding TB transmission dynamics and informing control strategies in diverse populations.
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