Shifts in pollen release envelope differ between genera with non-uniform climate change

Plant phenological responses to climate change now constitute one of the best studied areas of the ecological impacts of climate change. Flowering time responses to climate change of wind-pollinated species have, however, been less well studied. A novel source of flowering time data for wind-pollinated species is allergen monitoring records.

We studied the male flowering time response to climatic variables of two wind-pollinated genera, Betula (Betulaceae) and Populus (Salicaceae), using pollen count records over a 17-year period.

We found that changes in the pollen release envelope differed between the two genera. Over the study period, the only month with a significant rise in temperature was April, resulting in the duration of pollen release of the April-flowering Populus to shorten and the start and peak of the May-flowering Betula to advance. The quantity of pollen released by Betula has increased and was related to increases in the previous year's August precipitation, while the quantity of pollen released by Populus has not changed and was related to the previous year's summer and autumn temperatures.

Our findings suggest that taxa differ in the reproductive consequences of environmental change. Differing shifts in phenology among species may be related to different rates of change in climatic variables in different months of the year. While our study only considers two genera, the results underscore the importance of understanding non-uniform intra-annual variation in climate when studying the ecological implications of climate change.