A Bayesian modeling approach for phosphorus load apportionment in a reservoir with high water transfer disturbance

Phosphorus loading from external and internal sources poses a potential risk to eutrophication of lakes or reservoirs. However, the relative contribution of external and internal sources to eutrophication is still unclear especially for reservoirs with water transfer disturbance. The objective of this paper is to estimate the phosphorus loading from external (water transfer and diffusing emission) and internal sources (sediment release) in Yuqiao Reservoir (YQR) and compare their relative contribution of external and internal sources. In this study, we estimated the phosphorus loading considering both external (water transfer and diffusing source emission) and internal (release from sediment) sources of YQR. The phosphorus loading from water transfer was estimated by total phosphorus (TP) concentration × monthly flow of inflow. The phosphorus loading from nonpoint source emission was estimated using a generalized watershed loading function (GWLF). The phosphorus loading from internal sources was estimated with a Bayesian phosphorus budget model. Our result showed that water transfer TP load is the biggest (45.2%) source of TP load in YQR and internal TP load (20.5%) accounts for a comparable proportion of TP load as nonpoint source (34.3%) in YQR and dominates the total loading in some months. Analysis of seasonal total phosphorus load apportionment indicated that water transfer TP load takes the largest proportion in winter (60.8%), spring (60.2%), and autumn (47.8%). Nonpoint source TP load takes the largest proportion in summer (60.1%), and internal TP load is the second source of YQR in summer (22.4%). Our study indicates that water transfer may be the major driver of eutrophication for some reservoir systems, and sediment release may prevent recovery of many eutrophic lakes and reservoirs. Our analysis suggests that TP pollution control strategies in YQR should be preferentially focused on the improvement of water quality in the upstream reservoir, and nonpoint source TP load reductions should be focused on summer. Compared with conventional nutrient apportionment model applications, this paper provides a new approach to estimate external and internal TP loads simultaneously. Graphical abstract ᅟ.